Pescara 0–2 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Venezia

M. Modolo 74'

F. Sørensen 15' (OG)

2/13/2021

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Pescara23%

×Draw22%

Venezia55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.90

Pescara

1.15

Venezia

1.90

Venezia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.43

creates per match

2.01

1.80

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Pescara

1.43

Venezia

2.01

allows per match

Pescara

1.80

Venezia

0.87

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Pescara-0.10scores less

Venezia-0.01on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

45%

Pescara or Venezia

78%

Draw or Venezia

77%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

9%

Venezia wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

68%

Pescara 2+ goals

32%

Pescara 3+ goals

11%

Venezia 1+ goals

85%

Venezia 2+ goals

56%

Venezia 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

29%

Venezia (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

Venezia away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.87 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.43 + Venezia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Venezia attack 2.01 + Pescara defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pescara scores more

23%

level

22%

Venezia scores more

55%

Venezia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Modolo

Venezia · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

F. SørensenOwn goal

25'

Frederik Sørensen

46'

D. Ceter← J. Odgaard

46'

M. Nzita← E. Masciangelo

46'

A. Balzano← F. Sørensen

47'

Daniele Dessena

49'

Mattia Aramu

53'

Antonio Balzano

58'

Sebastiano Esposito← R. Bocalon

59'

L. Fiordilino← A. Taugourdeau

59'

D. Johnsen← F. Di Mariano

70'

C. Capone← D. Dessena

71'

S. Omeonga← M. Valdifiori

71'

J. Dezi← M. Aramu

74'

M. Modolo↳ J. Dezi

85'

Gian Filippo Felicioli

86'

M. Svoboda← Y. Maleh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraVenezia

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots12

4Corners12

12Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target5

6Off Target4

0Blocked3

5Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

369Total Passes478

253Accurate Passes382

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0