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Pescara vs Trapani — Serie B 2018

Pescara
Pescara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Trapani
Trapani
12/22/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 17Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pescara51%
×Draw24%
Trapani26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara
1.76
Trapani
1.19

Pescara creates 48% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pescara
1.41
Trapani
1.11

allows per match

Pescara
1.26
Trapani
2.11

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par
Trapani+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Trapani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pescara or draw
74%
Pescara or Trapani
76%
Draw or Trapani
49%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+
28%
Trapani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals
83%
Pescara 2+ goals
52%
Pescara 3+ goals
26%
Trapani 1+ goals
70%
Trapani 2+ goals
33%
Trapani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)
66%
Trapani (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Trapani away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.41 + Trapani defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.76

Trapani attack 1.11 + Pescara defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pescara scores more
51%
level
24%
Trapani scores more
26%

Pescara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pescara vs Trapani

Pescara and Trapani drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.