Pescara 0–1 Ternana: Result & Stats

Pescara

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ternana

A. De Marco 120+4' (pen)

B. Moruzzi 120+2' (pen)

R. Tonin 120+1' (pen)

V. Millico 120+2' (pen)

K. de Boer 76'

6/7/2025

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsStadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pescara44%

×Draw30%

Ternana26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchTernana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.85

Pescara

1.21

Ternana

0.85

Pescara creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

0.33

1.38

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Pescara

1.75

Ternana

0.33

allows per match

Pescara

1.38

Ternana

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par

Ternana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Ternana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

74%

Pescara or Ternana

70%

Draw or Ternana

56%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

20%

Ternana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

70%

Pescara 2+ goals

34%

Pescara 3+ goals

12%

Ternana 1+ goals

57%

Ternana 2+ goals

21%

Ternana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

63%

Ternana (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Ternana away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.75 + Ternana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ternana attack 0.33 + Pescara defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pescara scores more

44%

level

30%

Ternana scores more

26%

Pescara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

P. Cianci

23'

E. Lancini

29'

E. Lancini← F. Pellacani

46'

P. Cianci← A. Ferrante

46'

F. Pellacani← L. Lonardi

57'

S. Aloi← K. de Boer

57'

A. Curcio← A. Ciammaglichella

57'

S. Damiani← S. Damiani

58'

G. Cangiano← R. Tonin

62'

M. Dagasso

64'

A. Ciammaglichella

67'

A. Bentivegna← L. Valzania

72'

F. Tito← A. Donnarumma

76'

K. de Boer

80'

F. Donati

90+3'

L. Valzania

91'

A. Ferraris← A. Arena

93'

A. Ciammaglichella← V. Millico

95'

L. Meazzi← A. De Marco

114'

E. Pierozzi

120+1'

R. Tonin

120+1'

R. ToninPenalty

120+1'

A. FerranteMissed penalty

120+2'

B. MoruzziPenalty

120+2'

V. MillicoPenalty

120+3'

E. KrajaMissed penalty

120+3'

T. CasasolaMissed penalty

120+4'

A. De MarcoPenalty

120+4'

A. DonnarummaMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff