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Pescara vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Pescara
Pescara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
L. Meazzi 90'
M. Coulibaly 65'
10/1/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Pescara41%
×Draw27%
Sudtirol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara
1.35
Sudtirol
1.17

Pescara creates 15% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 78 away

creates per match

Pescara
1.41
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Pescara
1.26
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pescara or draw
68%
Pescara or Sudtirol
73%
Draw or Sudtirol
59%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+
19%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals
74%
Pescara 2+ goals
39%
Pescara 3+ goals
15%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
69%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
33%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)
56%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.41 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Pescara defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pescara scores more
41%
level
27%
Sudtirol scores more
32%

Pescara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. MeazziPescaraPescara · F
7.7

Match Events

20'
Giacomo Olzer
29'
Simone Davì
32'
Alessandro Mallamo
60'
G. Letizia← T. Corazza
60'
D. Merola← A. Di Nardo
60'
J. Italeng← S. Merkaj
60'
M. Coulibaly← A. Mallamo
65'
M. Coulibaly↳ J. Italeng
67'
K. Zedadka← H. El Kaouakibi
78'
L. Meazzi← G. Olzer
78'
O. Okwonkwo← L. Valzania
82'
G. Cangiano← A. Oliveri
84'
E. Pecorino← R. Odogwu
84'
D. Brik← J. Martini
90+7'
Lorenzo Meazzi
90+4'
Jonathan Ngock Italeng
90'
L. Meazzi↳ G. Letizia

Possession

56%Pescara

Shots

9Pescara

Pass accuracy

53%Pescara

Statistics

PescaraSudtirol
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots13
5Corners2
10Fouls20
Shots
9Total Shots13
2On Target6
5Off Target4
2Blocked3
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
412Total Passes324
301Accurate Passes215
73%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls20
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides6

Match Recap: Pescara vs Sudtirol

Pescara and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 1, 2025.

Goals: M. Coulibaly (65'), L. Meazzi (90').

Pescara controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.