Pescara 1–2 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sampdoria

A. Di Nardo 45' (pen)

F. Depaoli 90'

F. Conti 82'

4/11/2026

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Pescara43%

×Draw25%

Sampdoria31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.25

Pescara

1.51

Sampdoria

1.25

Pescara creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.65

creates per match

0.97

1.52

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Pescara

1.65

Sampdoria

0.97

allows per match

Pescara

1.52

Sampdoria

1.37

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara-0.22scores less

Sampdoria-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

69%

Pescara or Sampdoria

75%

Draw or Sampdoria

57%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

21%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

78%

Pescara 2+ goals

44%

Pescara 3+ goals

19%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

71%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

36%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

58%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 7 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.65 + Sampdoria defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sampdoria attack 0.97 + Pescara defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pescara scores more

43%

level

25%

Sampdoria scores more

31%

Pescara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

S. Esposito

Sampdoria · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

27'

32'

42'

45+1'

Andrea CagnanoPenalty confirmed

45'

A. Di NardoPenalty

53'

L. Cherubini← A. Barak

61'

F. Caligara← G. Olzer

67'

L. Meazzi← G. Acampora

68'

M. Ricci← S. Esposito

68'

M. Cicconi← S. Giordano

76'

Matteo Ricci

79'

G. Letizia← L. Valzania

79'

A. Gravillon← G. Altare

79'

F. Russo← A. Di Nardo

82'

F. Conti

83'

Lorenzo Meazzi

88'

F. Depaoli← N. Pierini

90+4'

Fabio Depaoli

90'

F. Depaoli↳ L. Cherubini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraSampdoria

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots14

1.45Expected Goals (xG)2.06

5Corners3

27Fouls24

Shots

12Total Shots14

1On Target2

7Off Target8

4Blocked4

10Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

361Total Passes375

278Accurate Passes308

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.01Goals Prevented-0.01

Discipline

27Fouls24

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2