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Pescara vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Pescara
Pescara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Perugia
Perugia
L. Memushaj 29'
L. Vido 70'
4/12/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 33Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Pescara40%
×Draw26%
Perugia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara
1.36
Perugia
1.24

Pescara creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 77 away

creates per match

Pescara
1.41
Perugia
1.12

allows per match

Pescara
1.36
Perugia
1.31

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par
Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Perugia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pescara or draw
66%
Pescara or Perugia
74%
Draw or Perugia
60%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+
18%
Perugia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals
74%
Pescara 2+ goals
39%
Pescara 3+ goals
16%
Perugia 1+ goals
71%
Perugia 2+ goals
35%
Perugia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)
54%
Perugia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.41 + Perugia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Perugia attack 1.12 + Pescara defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pescara scores more
40%
level
26%
Perugia scores more
34%

Pescara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
L. Memushaj
31'
Filippo Sgarbi
46'
R. Bianco← M. Carraro
47'
Marco Perrotta
54'
M. Falzerano← K. Michael
67'
Riccardo Sottil
70'
L. Vido↳ M. Falzerano
77'
Alessandro Bruno
78'
L. Crecco← G. Brugman
80'
Gennaro Scognamiglio
82'
Filippo Sgarbi
82'
Filippo Sgarbi
83'
J. El Yamiq← V. Verre
84'
S. Bellini← R. Sottil
88'
A. Balzano← M. Ciofani

Possession

49%Pescara

Shots

8Pescara

Statistics

PescaraPerugia
Overview
49%Possession51%
8Total Shots4
5Corners6
18Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots4
2On Target2
6Off Target2
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls15
4Yellow Cards1
–Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Pescara vs Perugia

Pescara and Perugia drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 12, 2019.

Goals: L. Memushaj (29'), L. Vido (70').

Perugia controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.