Pescara 1–3 Juventus U23: Result & Stats

Pescara

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Juventus U23

L. Milani 90+7'

S. Mbangula 90+9'

S. Guerra 90+1'

N. Sekulov 6'

5/11/2024

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundStadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pescara27%

×Draw22%

Juventus U2352%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchJuventus U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.99

Pescara

1.38

Juventus U23

1.99

Juventus U23 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

2.60

1.38

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Pescara

1.75

Juventus U23

2.60

allows per match

Pescara

1.38

Juventus U23

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par

Juventus U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Juventus U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

48%

Pescara or Juventus U23

78%

Draw or Juventus U23

73%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

12%

Juventus U23 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

75%

Pescara 2+ goals

40%

Pescara 3+ goals

16%

Juventus U23 1+ goals

86%

Juventus U23 2+ goals

59%

Juventus U23 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

34%

Juventus U23 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Juventus U23 away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.75 + Juventus U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Juventus U23 attack 2.60 + Pescara defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pescara scores more

27%

level

22%

Juventus U23 scores more

52%

Juventus U23 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juventus U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

N. Sekulov

55'

S. Franchini

56'

J. Rouhi

68'

F. Accornero← S. Aloi

70'

R. Brosco

75'

S. Mbangula← N. Sekulov

80'

G. Tunjov← S. Franchini

87'

L. Sasanelli← L. Cuppone

90'

J. Nonge Boende

90+10'

L. Sasanelli

90+11'

Pedro Felipe

90+3'

D. Salifou← J. Nonge Boende

90+3'

M. Da Graca← S. Guerra

90+1'

S. Guerra

90+7'

L. Milani

90+9'

S. Mbangula

Pescara

Juventus

30

5

2

15

19

4

26

8

▼

Boende

7

Hasa

17

⚽

▼

Guerra

44

⚽

▼

22

13

24

2

⚽

Milani

15

Mussolini

8

▼

Aloi

33

▼

Franchini

6

Squizzato

29

▼

Cuppone

10

Merola

32

Cangiano

Manager: E. Cascione

68'▲F. Accornero←▼S. Aloi

80'▲G. Tunjov←▼S. Franchini

87'▲L. Sasanelli←▼L. Cuppone

Pescara substitutes

11Accornero17Tunjov19Sasanelli1Gasparini5Pasquale7Masala9Vergani12Profeta18Pierno20Meazzi21Capone23Pellacani25Staver27Moruzzi28Marco

Manager: M. Brambilla

75'▲S. Mbangula←▼N. Sekulov

90+3'▲D. Salifou←▼J. Nonge Boende

90+3'▲M. Da Graca←▼S. Guerra

Juventus U23 substitutes

11Mbangula29Salifou50Graca3Stramaccioni9Cerri14Mulazzi20Iocolano21Palumbo25Scaglia31Stivanello33Perotti35Fuscaldo36Anghelè41Bonetti

Match Recap: Pescara vs Juventus U23

Juventus U23 beat Pescara 3-1 in Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs on May 11, 2024.

Goals: N. Sekulov (6'), S. Guerra (90+1'), L. Milani (90+7'), S. Mbangula (90+9').

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.

Pescara vs Juventus U23 — Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pescara vs Juventus U23