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Pescara U19 vs Torino U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Pescara U19
Pescara U19
FT
3 – 4
Torino U19
Torino U19
V. Blanuta 62'
F. Colazzilli 40'
A. Calio 34'
A. Dellavalle 86'
A. Rosa 30', 19'
T. Baeten 16'
9/18/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Centro Sportivo Delfino Pescara - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pescara U1935%
×Draw24%
Torino U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara U19
1.48
Torino U19
1.63

Torino U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pescara U19
1.06
Torino U19
1.32

allows per match

Pescara U19
1.94
Torino U19
1.91

finishing

Pescara U19+0.00on par
Torino U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara U19 ↓

Torino U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pescara U19 or draw
59%
Pescara U19 or Torino U19
76%
Draw or Torino U19
65%

Winning margin

Pescara U19 wins by 2+
16%
Torino U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pescara U19 1+ goals
77%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
43%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
19%
Torino U19 1+ goals
80%
Torino U19 2+ goals
48%
Torino U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Torino U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara U19 at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Torino U19 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara U19 attack 1.06 + Torino U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Torino U19 attack 1.32 + Pescara U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pescara U19 scores more
35%
level
24%
Torino U19 scores more
41%

Torino U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Stenio← Stenio
16'
T. Baeten
19'
A. Rosa
30'
A. Rosa
34'
A. Calio
40'
F. Colazzilli
46'
A. Sakho← A. Sakho
49'
E. Lindkvist
50'
D. Maugeri← D. Maugeri
57'
M. Dagasso← M. Dagasso
57'
P. Colarelli← P. Colarelli
62'
V. Blanuta
66'
C. Palmentieri
67'
T. Baeten← L. Akhalaia
68'
L. Caccavo← L. Caccavo
68'
M. Garbett← V. Amadori
74'
S. Salvatore← S. Salvatore
77'
N. Postiglione← N. Postiglione
86'
A. Dellavalle
89'
L. Akhalaia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Pescara U19 3–4 Torino U19

Torino U19 beat Pescara U19 4-3 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 18, 2021.

Goals: T. Baeten (16'), A. Rosa (19', 30'), A. Calio (34'), F. Colazzilli (40'), V. Blanuta (62'), A. Dellavalle (86').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Delfino Pescara - Campo 2 in Città Sant'Angelo.