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Pescara U19 vs Palermo U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pescara U19
Pescara U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Palermo U19
Palermo U19
5/4/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 29Delfino Training Center Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pescara U1949%
×Draw24%
Palermo U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara U19
1.75
Palermo U19
1.23

Pescara U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pescara U19
1.93
Palermo U19
1.22

allows per match

Pescara U19
1.25
Palermo U19
1.56

finishing

Pescara U19+0.00on par
Palermo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara U19 ↓

Palermo U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pescara U19 or draw
73%
Pescara U19 or Palermo U19
76%
Draw or Palermo U19
51%

Winning margin

Pescara U19 wins by 2+
27%
Palermo U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pescara U19 1+ goals
83%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
52%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
25%
Palermo U19 1+ goals
71%
Palermo U19 2+ goals
35%
Palermo U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Palermo U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.25 · 72 matches

Palermo U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara U19 attack 1.93 + Palermo U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Palermo U19 attack 1.22 + Pescara U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pescara U19 scores more
49%
level
24%
Palermo U19 scores more
27%

Pescara U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pescara U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Pescara U19 4–0 Palermo U19

Pescara U19 beat Palermo U19 4-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Delfino Training Center Campo 1 in Città Sant'angelo.