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Perun Kresna vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
FT
0 – 1
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
8/17/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna28%
×Draw26%
Slivnishki geroy46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perun Kresna
1.09
Slivnishki geroy
1.47

Slivnishki geroy creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 130 away

creates per match

Perun Kresna
0.73
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Perun Kresna
1.92
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw
54%
Perun Kresna or Slivnishki geroy
74%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
72%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+
11%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals
66%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
30%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
10%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
77%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
43%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
38%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.09

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Perun Kresna scores more
28%
level
26%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
46%

Slivnishki geroy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Perun Kresna 0–1 Slivnishki geroy

Slivnishki geroy beat Perun Kresna 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kresna.