Perugia 2–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Perugia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

P. Iemmello 90+4'

C. Capone 61'

12/21/2019

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Perugia49%

×Draw27%

Virtus Entella24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PerugiaExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.88

Perugia

1.40

Virtus Entella

0.88

Perugia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

1.18

creates per match

0.68

1.08

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Perugia

1.18

Virtus Entella

0.68

allows per match

Perugia

1.08

Virtus Entella

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Perugia or draw

76%

Perugia or Virtus Entella

73%

Draw or Virtus Entella

51%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+

24%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals

75%

Perugia 2+ goals

41%

Perugia 3+ goals

17%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

59%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

22%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)

67%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.18 + Virtus Entella defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Virtus Entella attack 0.68 + Perugia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Perugia scores more

49%

level

27%

Virtus Entella scores more

24%

Perugia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Iemmello

Perugia · F

8.3

Match Events

17'

35'

39'

61'

72'

73'

P. Mazzocchi← C. Buonaiuto

79'

D. Falcinelli← C. Capone

81'

M. Currarino← M. Eramo

84'

Diego Falcinelli

87'

M. Mancosu← C. Crialese

89'

Pietro Iemmello

90'

Aleandro Rosi

90'

Giuseppe De Luca

90+6'

A. Konate← P. Iemmello

90+4'

P. Iemmello↳ M. Falzerano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerugiaVirtus

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots17

7Corners10

10Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots17

7On Target2

5Off Target6

3Blocked9

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

346Total Passes417

265Accurate Passes327

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0