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Perugia vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Perugia
Perugia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
N. Gyömbér 64'
V. Verre 42'
F. Melegoni 52'
12/2/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 14Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Perugia47%
×Draw27%
Pescara27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perugia
1.44
Pescara
1.02

Perugia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 72 away

creates per match

Perugia
1.18
Pescara
0.96

allows per match

Perugia
1.08
Pescara
1.71

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par
Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Perugia or draw
73%
Perugia or Pescara
73%
Draw or Pescara
53%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+
23%
Pescara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals
76%
Perugia 2+ goals
42%
Perugia 3+ goals
18%
Pescara 1+ goals
64%
Pescara 2+ goals
27%
Pescara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)
64%
Pescara (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.18 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pescara attack 0.96 + Perugia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Perugia scores more
47%
level
27%
Pescara scores more
27%

Perugia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Alessandro Bordin
42'
V. Verre↳ N. Gyömbér
52'
F. Melegoni↳ L. Crecco
64'
N. Gyömbér↳ A. Bordin
69'
A. Cocco← L. Crecco
70'
C. Kouan← M. Mustacchio
81'
P. Mazzocchi← A. Bordin
82'
F. Del Sole← L. Mancuso
82'
G. Monachello← M. Marras
86'
A. Bianchimano← L. Vido

Possession

45%Perugia

Shots

9Perugia

Statistics

PerugiaPescara
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots7
3Corners7
8Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots7
4On Target3
5Off Target4
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Perugia vs Pescara

Perugia beat Pescara 2-1 in Serie B on December 2, 2018.

Goals: V. Verre (42'), F. Melegoni (52'), N. Gyömbér (64').

Pescara controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Renato Curi in Perugia.