Perugia 0–1 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Perugia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Modena

F. Gerli 46'

4/10/2023

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Perugia41%

×Draw28%

Modena32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PerugiaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.10

Perugia

1.28

Modena

1.10

Perugia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 76 away

1.18

creates per match

1.12

1.08

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Perugia

1.18

Modena

1.12

allows per match

Perugia

1.08

Modena

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par

Modena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Perugia or draw

68%

Perugia or Modena

72%

Draw or Modena

59%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+

18%

Modena wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals

72%

Perugia 2+ goals

37%

Perugia 3+ goals

14%

Modena 1+ goals

67%

Modena 2+ goals

30%

Modena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)

56%

Modena (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Modena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.18 + Modena defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Modena attack 1.12 + Perugia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Perugia scores more

41%

level

28%

Modena scores more

32%

Perugia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Furlan

Perugia · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

Tommaso Silvestri

46'

D. Cancellieri← F. Lisi

46'

F. Sgarbi← A. Rosi

46'

F. Gerli

58'

S. Santoro← E. Iannoni

62'

D. Diaw← L. Strizzolo

63'

A. Ioniţă← L. Tremolada

67'

Ryder Matos← L. Capezzi

70'

Artur Ioniță

75'

Marco Armellino

77'

E. Ekong← S. Di Carmine

79'

Aljaž Struna

83'

M. Coppolaro← F. Renzetti

85'

E. Duca← D. Falcinelli

90+6'

Filippo Sgarbi

90'

Damiano Cancellieri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerugiaModena

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots20

5Corners5

20Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots20

0On Target8

5Off Target8

6Blocked4

5Inside Box11

6Outside Box9

Passing

54%Possession46%

379Total Passes335

268Accurate Passes204

71%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

20Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1