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Perugia vs Carpi — Serie B 2018

Perugia
Perugia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Carpi
Carpi
9/25/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 5Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Perugia49%
×Draw25%
Carpi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perugia
1.61
Carpi
1.10

Perugia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 18 away

creates per match

Perugia
1.17
Carpi
1.11

allows per match

Perugia
1.09
Carpi
2.06

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par
Carpi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Carpi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Perugia or draw
74%
Perugia or Carpi
75%
Draw or Carpi
51%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+
26%
Carpi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals
80%
Perugia 2+ goals
48%
Perugia 3+ goals
22%
Carpi 1+ goals
67%
Carpi 2+ goals
30%
Carpi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)
65%
Carpi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

Carpi away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.17 + Carpi defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Carpi attack 1.11 + Perugia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Perugia scores more
49%
level
25%
Carpi scores more
26%

Perugia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perugia vs Carpi

Carpi beat Perugia 1-0 in Serie B on September 25, 2018.

The match was played at Renato Curi in Perugia.