Perugia 3–2 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Perugia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Benevento

C. Kouan 90+4'

S. Di Carmine 58'

F. Lisi 53' (pen)

C. Ciano 90+1'

Diego Farias 30'

5/19/2023

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Perugia34%

×Draw28%

Benevento38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PerugiaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.18

Perugia

1.11

Benevento

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 79 away

1.17

creates per match

1.24

1.11

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Perugia

1.17

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Perugia

1.11

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Perugia or draw

62%

Perugia or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

66%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+

14%

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals

67%

Perugia 2+ goals

30%

Perugia 3+ goals

10%

Benevento 1+ goals

69%

Benevento 2+ goals

33%

Benevento 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)

48%

Benevento (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 75 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.17 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Benevento attack 1.24 + Perugia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Perugia scores more

34%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

38%

Benevento at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

C. Ciano

Benevento · F

7.6

Match Events

30'

43'

46'

46'

53'

F. LisiPenalty

58'

S. Di Carmine↳ G. Di Serio

62'

L. Capezzi← G. Di Serio

62'

C. Kouan← G. Luperini

62'

K. Kubica← P. Schiattarella

71'

Leonardo Capezzi

75'

A. Tello← H. El Kaouakibi

80'

P. Bartolomei← E. Iannoni

84'

Kamil Glik

84'

M. Vulić← S. Santoro

86'

M. Leverbe← D. Foulon

90+1'

C. Ciano↳ A. Tello

90+4'

C. Kouan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerugiaBenevento

Overview

36%Possession64%

17Total Shots15

8Corners6

19Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots15

7On Target6

5Off Target6

5Blocked3

8Inside Box4

9Outside Box11

Passing

36%Possession64%

285Total Passes522

192Accurate Passes410

67%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0