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Perugia vs Alessandria — Serie B 2018

Perugia
Perugia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alessandria
Alessandria
9/26/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Perugia47%
×Draw26%
Alessandria27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perugia
1.53
Alessandria
1.10

Perugia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Perugia
1.17
Alessandria
1.11

allows per match

Perugia
1.09
Alessandria
1.89

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par
Alessandria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Alessandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Perugia or draw
73%
Perugia or Alessandria
74%
Draw or Alessandria
53%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+
24%
Alessandria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals
78%
Perugia 2+ goals
45%
Perugia 3+ goals
20%
Alessandria 1+ goals
67%
Alessandria 2+ goals
30%
Alessandria 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)
63%
Alessandria (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

Alessandria away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.17 + Alessandria defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

Alessandria attack 1.11 + Perugia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Perugia scores more
47%
level
26%
Alessandria scores more
27%

Perugia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perugia vs Alessandria

Perugia and Alessandria drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Curi in Perugia.