Perugia U19 vs Napoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 42+ matches
Perugia U1942%
Napoli U1934%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Perugia U19 creates 13% more chances
Season form · 75 home / 42 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Perugia U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Perugia U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches
Napoli U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Perugia U19 attack 1.93 + Napoli U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.62
Napoli U19 attack 1.69 + Perugia U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.43
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Perugia U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Perugia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Verona U19
Parma U19
Cremonese U19
Brescia U19
Vicenza U19
Chievo Verona U19
Udinese U19
Pordenone U19
Venezia U19
Monza U19
Reggiana U19
Cittadella U19
Pescara U19
Lecce U19Napoli U19
Virtus Entella U19
Frosinone U19
Spezia U19
Crotone U19
Cosenza U19
Benevento U19
Pisa U19
Reggina U19
Salernitana U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Perugia U19 host Napoli U19 on Saturday, 16 December 2023 at 13:30. The match is part of the Campionato Primavera - 2 2020/2021 season.
Campionato Primavera - 2: Perugia U19 4–2 Napoli U19
Perugia U19 beat Napoli U19 4-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 16, 2023.
The match was played at Centro Sportivo Paolo Rossi Campo 1 in Perugia.