Perugia U19 0–2 Empoli U19: Result & Stats

Perugia U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Empoli U19

4/4/2026

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Perugia U1927%

×Draw24%

Empoli U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perugia U19Expected goals in this matchEmpoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.72

Perugia U19

1.23

Empoli U19

1.72

Empoli U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

1.93

creates per match

2.27

1.17

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Perugia U19

1.93

Empoli U19

2.27

allows per match

Perugia U19

1.17

Empoli U19

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia U19+0.00on par

Empoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia U19 ↓

Empoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Perugia U19 or draw

51%

Perugia U19 or Empoli U19

76%

Draw or Empoli U19

73%

Winning margin

Perugia U19 wins by 2+

11%

Empoli U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Perugia U19 1+ goals

71%

Perugia U19 2+ goals

35%

Perugia U19 3+ goals

13%

Empoli U19 1+ goals

82%

Empoli U19 2+ goals

51%

Empoli U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Perugia U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

Empoli U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia U19 attack 1.93 + Empoli U19 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Empoli U19 attack 2.27 + Perugia U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Perugia U19 scores more

27%

level

24%

Empoli U19 scores more

49%

Empoli U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff