Perugia U19 0–1 Catanzaro U19: Result & Stats

Perugia U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Catanzaro U19

1/31/2026

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Perugia U1948%

×Draw25%

Catanzaro U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perugia U19Expected goals in this matchCatanzaro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.19

Perugia U19

1.63

Catanzaro U19

1.19

Perugia U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

1.93

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Perugia U19

1.93

Catanzaro U19

1.20

allows per match

Perugia U19

1.17

Catanzaro U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia U19+0.00on par

Catanzaro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia U19 ↓

Catanzaro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Perugia U19 or draw

72%

Perugia U19 or Catanzaro U19

75%

Draw or Catanzaro U19

52%

Winning margin

Perugia U19 wins by 2+

25%

Catanzaro U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Perugia U19 1+ goals

80%

Perugia U19 2+ goals

48%

Perugia U19 3+ goals

22%

Catanzaro U19 1+ goals

70%

Catanzaro U19 2+ goals

33%

Catanzaro U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Perugia U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Catanzaro U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

Catanzaro U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia U19 attack 1.93 + Catanzaro U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Catanzaro U19 attack 1.20 + Perugia U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Perugia U19 scores more

48%

level

25%

Catanzaro U19 scores more

28%

Perugia U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Perugia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff