Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peru W vs Jamaica W — Friendlies Women 2026

Peru W
Peru W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Jamaica W
Jamaica W
A. Vilchez 54'
B. Ruiz 35'
T. Cameron 23'
R. Blades 19'
N. Cardoza 6'
2/26/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesEstadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Peru W46%
×Draw24%
Jamaica W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peru W
1.63
Jamaica W
1.24

Peru W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Peru W
0.91
Jamaica W
0.65

allows per match

Peru W
1.82
Jamaica W
2.35

finishing

Peru W+0.00on par
Jamaica W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru W ↓

Jamaica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peru W or draw
71%
Peru W or Jamaica W
76%
Draw or Jamaica W
54%

Winning margin

Peru W wins by 2+
24%
Jamaica W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peru W 1+ goals
80%
Peru W 2+ goals
48%
Peru W 3+ goals
22%
Jamaica W 1+ goals
71%
Jamaica W 2+ goals
35%
Jamaica W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Peru W (draw refunded)
61%
Jamaica W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Jamaica W away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru W attack 0.91 + Jamaica W defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jamaica W attack 0.65 + Peru W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peru W scores more
46%
level
24%
Jamaica W scores more
29%

Peru W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peru W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
N. Cardoza
19'
R. Blades
23'
T. Cameron
35'
B. Ruiz
54'
A. Vilchez
Peru
Jamaica
Emily Lima
Manager: Emily Lima
Hubert Busby
Manager: Hubert Busby

Match Recap: Peru W vs Jamaica W

Jamaica W beat Peru W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on February 26, 2025.

Goals: N. Cardoza (6'), R. Blades (19'), T. Cameron (23'), B. Ruiz (35'), A. Vilchez (54').

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.