Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peru W vs Cuba W — Friendlies Women 2026

Peru W
Peru W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cuba W
Cuba W
G. Dorador 53' (pen), 40' (pen)
M. Leon 48'
K. Castellanos 89'
M. Mengana Perez 75'
4/8/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesEstadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Peru W38%
×Draw26%
Cuba W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peru W
1.37
Cuba W
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Peru W
0.91
Cuba W
0.83

allows per match

Peru W
1.82
Cuba W
1.83

finishing

Peru W+0.00on par
Cuba W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru W ↓

Cuba W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Peru W or draw
64%
Peru W or Cuba W
74%
Draw or Cuba W
62%

Winning margin

Peru W wins by 2+
18%
Cuba W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Peru W 1+ goals
75%
Peru W 2+ goals
40%
Peru W 3+ goals
16%
Cuba W 1+ goals
73%
Cuba W 2+ goals
38%
Cuba W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Peru W (draw refunded)
52%
Cuba W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Cuba W away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru W attack 0.91 + Cuba W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cuba W attack 0.83 + Peru W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Peru W scores more
38%
level
26%
Cuba W scores more
36%

Peru W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Peru W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
G. DoradorPenalty
48'
M. Leon
53'
G. DoradorPenalty
75'
M. Mengana Perez
89'
K. Castellanos
Peru
Cuba
Emily Lima
Manager: Emily Lima
E. Cuff
Manager: E. Cuff

Peru W 3 – 2 Cuba W

Peru W beat Cuba W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on April 8, 2025.

Goals: G. Dorador (40' pen, 53' pen), M. Leon (48'), M. Mengana Perez (75'), K. Castellanos (89').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.