Peru 4–1 Dominican Republic: Result & Stats

Peru

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dominican Republic

P. Guerrero 90+4' (pen)

P. Quispe 54'

J. Castillo 45+1'

S. Peña 18'

J. López 58'

3/27/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peru64%

×Draw20%

Dominican Republic16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeruExpected goals in this matchDominican Republic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.93

Peru

2.08

Dominican Republic

0.93

Peru creates 124% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

1.36

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Peru

1.36

Dominican Republic

1.00

allows per match

Peru

0.86

Dominican Republic

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peru+0.00on par

Dominican Republic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru ↓

Dominican Republic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Peru or draw

84%

Peru or Dominican Republic

80%

Draw or Dominican Republic

36%

Winning margin

Peru wins by 2+

40%

Dominican Republic wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Peru 1+ goals

87%

Peru 2+ goals

61%

Peru 3+ goals

34%

Dominican Republic 1+ goals

61%

Dominican Republic 2+ goals

24%

Dominican Republic 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Peru (draw refunded)

80%

Dominican Republic (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Dominican Republic away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru attack 1.36 + Dominican Republic defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dominican Republic attack 1.00 + Peru defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Peru scores more

64%

level

20%

Dominican Republic scores more

16%

Peru at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Peru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

É. Flores

Peru · F

7.5

Match Events

18'

S. Peña

45+1'

J. Castillo↳ A. Santamaría

46'

E. Japa← D. Flores

46'

B. Ademán← M. Sambataro

46'

52'

54'

58'

60'

G. Lapadula← B. Reyna

60'

J. Rivera← P. Quispe

65'

Erick Japa

70'

L. Espinal← C. Ventura

71'

W. Cartagena← J. Castillo

71'

P. Guerrero← É. Flores

77'

L. Quezada← R. Vásquez

83'

Wilder Cartagena

84'

M. Távara← S. Peña

85'

O. Sonne← L. Advíncula

87'

L. Bretón← J. Firpo

90+4'

P. GuerreroPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeruDominican

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots11

3Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target3

2Off Target7

3Blocked1

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

392Total Passes378

320Accurate Passes301

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1