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Peru vs Canada — Copa America 2019

Peru
Peru
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Canada
Canada
J. David 74'
6/26/2024Copa AmericaCopa America · Group Stage - 2Children's Mercy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peru46%
×Draw41%
Canada14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peru
0.83
Canada
0.33

Peru creates 152% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Peru
0.33
Canada
0.33

allows per match

Peru
0.33
Canada
1.33

finishing

Peru+0.00on par
Canada+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Under
  • Under89
  • Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

84%No
  • No84
  • Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru ↓

Canada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–031%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–026%
1–19%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
69%31%1.5
32%68%2.5
11%89%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Peru or draw
86%
Peru or Canada
59%
Draw or Canada
54%

Winning margin

Peru wins by 2+
16%
Canada wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Peru 1+ goals
56%
Peru 2+ goals
20%
Peru 3+ goals
5%
Canada 1+ goals
28%
Canada 2+ goals
4%
Canada 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Peru (draw refunded)
77%
Canada (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Canada away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru attack 0.33 + Canada defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Canada attack 0.33 + Peru defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peru scores more
46%
level
41%
Canada scores more
14%

Peru at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
M. CrépeauCanadaCanada · G
7.6

Match Events

20'
Richie Laryea
46'
J. Osorio← I. Koné
46'
K. Miller← D. Cornelius
46'
J. Shaffelburg← L. Millar
57'
Miguel AraujoCard upgrade
59'
Miguel Araujo
62'
B. Reyna← P. Quispe
62'
A. Santamaría← É. Flores
66'
T. Buchanan← R. Laryea
70'
P. Guerrero← G. Lapadula
74'
J. David↳ J. Shaffelburg
79'
C. Cueva← C. Zambrano
79'
A. Carrillo← S. Peña
82'
T. Oluwaseyi← C. Larin

Possession

49%Peru

Shots

9Peru

Pass accuracy

48%Peru

Statistics

PeruCanada
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots5
0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.78
2Corners1
17Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots5
4On Target2
3Off Target3
2Blocked0
3Inside Box5
6Outside Box0
Passing
49%Possession51%
347Total Passes363
251Accurate Passes282
72%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
1.00Goals Prevented1.00
Discipline
17Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Peru 0 – 1 Canada

Canada beat Peru 1-0 in Copa America on June 26, 2024.

Goals: J. David (74').

Canada controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.