Perth RedStar 0–2 Floreat Athena: Result & Stats

Perth RedStar

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Floreat Athena

3/16/2024

Western Australia NPL · Round 1RedStar Arena A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Perth RedStar46%

×Draw22%

Floreat Athena32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth RedStarExpected goals in this matchFloreat Athena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.54

Perth RedStar

1.87

Floreat Athena

1.54

Perth RedStar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 78 away

2.11

creates per match

1.82

1.25

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Perth RedStar

2.11

Floreat Athena

1.82

allows per match

Perth RedStar

1.25

Floreat Athena

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth RedStar+0.00on par

Floreat Athena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth RedStar ↓

Floreat Athena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Perth RedStar or draw

68%

Perth RedStar or Floreat Athena

78%

Draw or Floreat Athena

54%

Winning margin

Perth RedStar wins by 2+

25%

Floreat Athena wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Perth RedStar 1+ goals

85%

Perth RedStar 2+ goals

56%

Perth RedStar 3+ goals

29%

Floreat Athena 1+ goals

79%

Floreat Athena 2+ goals

45%

Floreat Athena 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Perth RedStar (draw refunded)

59%

Floreat Athena (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth RedStar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Floreat Athena away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.63 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth RedStar attack 2.11 + Floreat Athena defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.87

Floreat Athena attack 1.82 + Perth RedStar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Perth RedStar scores more

46%

level

22%

Floreat Athena scores more

32%

Perth RedStar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Perth RedStar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff