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Perth Glory vs FC Tokyo — AFC Champions League 2018

Perth Glory
Perth Glory
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
12/3/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Perth Glory20%
×Draw29%
FC Tokyo52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory
0.71
FC Tokyo
1.33

FC Tokyo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Perth Glory
0.67
FC Tokyo
1.00

allows per match

Perth Glory
1.67
FC Tokyo
0.75

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par
FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw
48%
Perth Glory or FC Tokyo
71%
Draw or FC Tokyo
80%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+
6%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals
51%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
16%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
4%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
74%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
38%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)
28%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 0.67 + FC Tokyo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

FC Tokyo attack 1.00 + Perth Glory defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Perth Glory scores more
20%
level
29%
FC Tokyo scores more
52%

FC Tokyo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perth Glory vs FC Tokyo

FC Tokyo beat Perth Glory 1-0 in AFC Champions League on December 3, 2020.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.