Perth Glory 2–4 Adelaide United: Result & Stats

Perth Glory

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Adelaide United

4/7/2024

A-League · Round 23HBF Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Perth Glory41%

×Draw23%

Adelaide United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth GloryExpected goals in this matchAdelaide United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.58

Perth Glory

1.69

Adelaide United

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 109 away

1.60

creates per match

1.62

1.55

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Perth Glory

1.60

Adelaide United

1.62

allows per match

Perth Glory

1.55

Adelaide United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

Adelaide United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw

64%

Perth Glory or Adelaide United

77%

Draw or Adelaide United

59%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+

21%

Adelaide United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals

82%

Perth Glory 2+ goals

50%

Perth Glory 3+ goals

24%

Adelaide United 1+ goals

79%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

47%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)

53%

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.78 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 1.60 + Adelaide United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Adelaide United attack 1.62 + Perth Glory defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Perth Glory scores more

41%

level

23%

Adelaide United scores more

36%

Perth Glory at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Perth Glory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff