Perth Glory II 4–2 Rockingham City: Result & Stats

Perth Glory II

FT

4 – 2

Rockingham City

5/5/2019

Western Australia NPL · Round 8E & D Litis Stadium (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Perth Glory II59%

×Draw19%

Rockingham City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth Glory IIExpected goals in this matchRockingham City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.48

Perth Glory II

2.47

Rockingham City

1.48

Perth Glory II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 31 away

1.94

creates per match

1.03

1.93

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Perth Glory II

1.94

Rockingham City

1.03

allows per match

Perth Glory II

1.93

Rockingham City

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory II+0.00on par

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory II ↓

Rockingham City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Perth Glory II or draw

78%

Perth Glory II or Rockingham City

81%

Draw or Rockingham City

41%

Winning margin

Perth Glory II wins by 2+

38%

Rockingham City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Perth Glory II 1+ goals

91%

Perth Glory II 2+ goals

70%

Perth Glory II 3+ goals

44%

Rockingham City 1+ goals

77%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

43%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory II (draw refunded)

73%

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.93 · 82 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory II attack 1.94 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.47

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + Perth Glory II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Perth Glory II scores more

59%

level

19%

Rockingham City scores more

22%

Perth Glory II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Perth Glory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff