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Perth Glory FC vs Shanghai Shenhua — AFC Champions League 2018

Perth Glory FC
Perth Glory FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
11/18/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Perth Glory FC36%
×Draw28%
Shanghai Shenhua36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory FC
1.17
Shanghai Shenhua
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Perth Glory FC
0.67
Shanghai Shenhua
0.67

allows per match

Perth Glory FC
1.67
Shanghai Shenhua
1.67

finishing

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Perth Glory FC or draw
64%
Perth Glory FC or Shanghai Shenhua
72%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
64%

Winning margin

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+
15%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals
69%
Perth Glory FC 2+ goals
33%
Perth Glory FC 3+ goals
11%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
69%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
33%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)
50%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory FC attack 0.67 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Perth Glory FC scores more
36%
level
28%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
36%

Perth Glory FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Perth Glory FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perth Glory FC vs Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat Perth Glory FC 2-1 in AFC Champions League on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.