Perth Glory FC 1–0 Melbourne City: Result & Stats

Perth Glory FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Melbourne City

C. Ikonomidis 43'

12/8/2018

A-League · Round 7nib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Perth Glory FC37%

×Draw24%

Melbourne City39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth Glory FCExpected goals in this matchMelbourne City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

Perth Glory FC

1.52

Melbourne City

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 108 away

1.60

creates per match

1.56

1.55

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Perth Glory FC

1.60

Melbourne City

1.56

allows per match

Perth Glory FC

1.55

Melbourne City

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory FC ↓

Melbourne City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Perth Glory FC or draw

61%

Perth Glory FC or Melbourne City

76%

Draw or Melbourne City

63%

Winning margin

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+

18%

Melbourne City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals

78%

Perth Glory FC 2+ goals

45%

Perth Glory FC 3+ goals

20%

Melbourne City 1+ goals

79%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

46%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)

49%

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory FC attack 1.60 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Perth Glory FC scores more

37%

level

24%

Melbourne City scores more

39%

Melbourne City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Davidson

Perth Glory FC · M

7.3

Match Events

33'

D. Đulbić← M. Špiranović

43'

C. Ikonomidis

55'

Curtis Good

64'

J. Brimmer← B. Wilson

71'

R. Griffiths← L. Brattan

71'

A. Caceres← D. Vidošić

79'

80'

80'

81'

85'

J. Chianese← Diego Castro

88'

R. Najjarine← N. Atkinson

90'

Jason Davidson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerthMelbourne

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots7

5Corners7

17Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots7

4On Target0

3Off Target4

3Blocked3

7Inside Box2

3Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

404Total Passes414

302Accurate Passes317

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1