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Melbourne City vs Perth Glory — A-League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Perth Glory
Perth Glory
10/25/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 2AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Melbourne City56%
×Draw22%
Perth Glory22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.95
Perth Glory
1.14

Melbourne City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 106 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
2.07
Perth Glory
1.23

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.04
Perth Glory
1.83

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Perth Glory+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Perth Glory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
78%
Melbourne City or Perth Glory
78%
Draw or Perth Glory
44%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
33%
Perth Glory wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
86%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
58%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
31%
Perth Glory 1+ goals
68%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
32%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
72%
Perth Glory (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Perth Glory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Perth Glory defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.95

Perth Glory attack 1.23 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Melbourne City scores more
56%
level
22%
Perth Glory scores more
22%

Melbourne City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City vs Perth Glory

Melbourne City beat Perth Glory 4-0 in A-League on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.