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Persija Jakarta vs Ceres — AFC Cup 2018

Persija Jakarta
Persija Jakarta
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ceres
Ceres
4/23/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno (Jakarta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Persija Jakarta43%
×Draw22%
Ceres35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persija Jakarta
1.90
Ceres
1.68

Persija Jakarta creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Persija Jakarta
2.57
Ceres
2.22

allows per match

Persija Jakarta
1.14
Ceres
1.22

finishing

Persija Jakarta+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persija Jakarta ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Persija Jakarta or draw
65%
Persija Jakarta or Ceres
78%
Draw or Ceres
57%

Winning margin

Persija Jakarta wins by 2+
24%
Ceres wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Persija Jakarta 1+ goals
85%
Persija Jakarta 2+ goals
56%
Persija Jakarta 3+ goals
29%
Ceres 1+ goals
81%
Ceres 2+ goals
50%
Ceres 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Persija Jakarta (draw refunded)
56%
Ceres (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persija Jakarta at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persija Jakarta attack 2.57 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ceres attack 2.22 + Persija Jakarta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Persija Jakarta scores more
43%
level
22%
Ceres scores more
35%

Persija Jakarta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Persija Jakarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Persija Jakarta vs Ceres

Ceres beat Persija Jakarta 3-2 in AFC Cup on April 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno (Jakarta).