Persib Bandung 3–4 Hangzhou Greentown

Persib Bandung

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Hangzhou Greentown

12/5/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadion Si Jalak Harupat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Persib Bandung49%

×Draw24%

Hangzhou Greentown26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persib BandungExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.17

Persib Bandung

1.69

Hangzhou Greentown

1.17

Persib Bandung creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.38

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Persib Bandung

1.38

Hangzhou Greentown

1.33

allows per match

Persib Bandung

1.00

Hangzhou Greentown

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persib Bandung+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persib Bandung ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Persib Bandung or draw

74%

Persib Bandung or Hangzhou Greentown

76%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

51%

Winning margin

Persib Bandung wins by 2+

26%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Persib Bandung 1+ goals

82%

Persib Bandung 2+ goals

50%

Persib Bandung 3+ goals

24%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

69%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

33%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Persib Bandung (draw refunded)

65%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persib Bandung at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persib Bandung attack 1.38 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.33 + Persib Bandung defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Persib Bandung scores more

49%

level

24%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

26%

Persib Bandung at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Persib Bandung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff