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Persepolis FC vs ZOB Ahan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
10/24/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 8Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Persepolis FC49%
×Draw30%
ZOB Ahan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.25
ZOB Ahan
0.72

Persepolis FC creates 74% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.44
ZOB Ahan
0.91

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.52
ZOB Ahan
1.07

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
79%
Persepolis FC or ZOB Ahan
70%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
51%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
22%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
71%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
36%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
13%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
51%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
16%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
70%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.52 · 101 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Persepolis FC defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
49%
level
30%
ZOB Ahan scores more
21%

Persepolis FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Persepolis FC 2–0 ZOB Ahan

Persepolis FC beat ZOB Ahan 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Tehran.