Persepolis FC 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ulsan Hyundai FC

12/19/2020

AFC Champions League · FinalsAl Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Persepolis FC45%

×Draw26%

Ulsan Hyundai FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchUlsan Hyundai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.14

Persepolis FC

1.48

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.14

Persepolis FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.47

creates per match

1.48

0.80

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.47

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.80

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

71%

Persepolis FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC

74%

Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC

55%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

22%

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

77%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

43%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

19%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

68%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

32%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

61%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

45%

level

26%

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

29%

Persepolis FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff