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Persepolis FC vs Sharjah FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
9/24/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Persepolis FC47%
×Draw26%
Sharjah FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.47
Sharjah FC
1.02

Persepolis FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.47
Sharjah FC
1.24

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.80
Sharjah FC
1.47

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
74%
Persepolis FC or Sharjah FC
74%
Draw or Sharjah FC
53%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
24%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
77%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
43%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
18%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
64%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
27%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
64%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.47 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sharjah FC attack 1.24 + Persepolis FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Sharjah FC scores more
26%

Persepolis FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Persepolis FC 4–0 Sharjah FC

Persepolis FC beat Sharjah FC 4-0 in AFC Champions League on September 24, 2020.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.