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Persepolis FC vs Shahin Bushehr — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
7/4/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Persepolis FC63%
×Draw23%
Shahin Bushehr14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.72
Shahin Bushehr
0.66

Persepolis FC creates 161% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.44
Shahin Bushehr
0.80

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.51
Shahin Bushehr
2.00

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
86%
Persepolis FC or Shahin Bushehr
77%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
37%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
36%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
82%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
51%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
25%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
48%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
14%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
82%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
63%
level
23%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
14%

Persepolis FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Persepolis FC 1–0 Shahin Bushehr

Persepolis FC beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.