Persepolis FC 1–0 Sanat Naft: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sanat Naft

M. Kanani 57'

9/16/2019

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 3Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Persepolis FC56%

×Draw28%

Sanat Naft16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchSanat Naft

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.57

Persepolis FC

1.34

Sanat Naft

0.57

Persepolis FC creates 135% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 77 away

1.44

creates per match

0.62

0.52

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.44

Sanat Naft

0.62

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.52

Sanat Naft

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Sanat Naft →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

84%

Persepolis FC or Sanat Naft

72%

Draw or Sanat Naft

44%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

27%

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

74%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

39%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

15%

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

43%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

11%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

78%

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.52 · 101 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Sanat Naft defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sanat Naft attack 0.62 + Persepolis FC defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

56%

level

28%

Sanat Naft scores more

16%

Persepolis FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

V. Amiri← Bashar Rasan

57'

M. Kanani

61'

R. Jabireh← M. Momeni

69'

O. Alishah← Juninho Brandão

80'

M. Naderi← M. Ansari

82'

F. Tahami← T. Rikani

86'

I. Alekasir← M. Mojaddami

Persepolis

Sanat

1

44

4

77

24

10

▼

Rikani

20

Ahmadi

72

Hanafi

23

▼

Mojaddami

8

▼

25

44

3

6

⚽

Kanani

15

▼

Ansari

5

▼

88

8

9

17

70

7

▼

Brandão

Manager: G. Calderón

52'▲V. Amiri←▼Bashar Rasan

69'▲O. Alishah←▼Juninho Brandão

80'▲M. Naderi←▼M. Ansari

Persepolis FC substitutes

19Amiri2Alishah28Naderi

Manager: D. Skočić

61'▲R. Jabireh←▼M. Momeni

82'▲F. Tahami←▼T. Rikani

86'▲I. Alekasir←▼M. Mojaddami

Sanat Naft substitutes

29Jabireh30Tahami7Alekasir