Persepolis FC 4–2 Foolad FC: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Foolad FC

3/8/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 19Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Persepolis FC50%

×Draw30%

Foolad FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchFoolad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.68

Persepolis FC

1.25

Foolad FC

0.68

Persepolis FC creates 84% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

1.44

creates per match

0.84

0.51

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.44

Foolad FC

0.84

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.51

Foolad FC

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Foolad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

80%

Persepolis FC or Foolad FC

70%

Draw or Foolad FC

50%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

23%

Foolad FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

71%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

36%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

13%

Foolad FC 1+ goals

49%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

15%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

71%

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

50%

level

30%

Foolad FC scores more

20%

Persepolis FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff