Persepolis FC vs Fajr Sepasi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Persepolis FC55%
Fajr Sepasi16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Persepolis FC creates 130% more chances
Season form · 101 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No68
- Yes32
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Persepolis FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.52 · 101 matches
Fajr Sepasi away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Fajr Sepasi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31
Fajr Sepasi attack 0.63 + Persepolis FC defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.57
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Persepolis FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Persepolis FC substitutes
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Chadormalu SC
Gol Gohar
Tractor SaziPersepolis FC
Foolad FCFajr Sepasi
Kheybar Khorramabad
Malavan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Paykan
Shams Azar Qazvin
Aluminium Arak
ZOB Ahan
Mes RafsanjanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Persepolis FC host Fajr Sepasi on Monday, 18 August 2025 at 16:00. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 season.
Persian Gulf Pro League: Persepolis FC 1–1 Fajr Sepasi
Persepolis FC and Fajr Sepasi drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 18, 2025.
Goals: H. Shahabi (13'), A. Alipour (90').
The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Tehran.