Persepolis FC 0–0 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esteghlal FC

12/5/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Persepolis FC39%

×Draw30%

Esteghlal FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.92

Persepolis FC

1.10

Esteghlal FC

0.92

Persepolis FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 99 away

1.44

creates per match

1.31

0.52

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.44

Esteghlal FC

1.31

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.52

Esteghlal FC

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

70%

Persepolis FC or Esteghlal FC

70%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

61%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

16%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

67%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

30%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

10%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

60%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

23%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

57%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.52 · 101 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

Esteghlal FC attack 1.31 + Persepolis FC defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

39%

level

30%

Esteghlal FC scores more

30%

Persepolis FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

S. Rafiei

67'

F. Ahmadzadeh← O. Alishah

70'

E. Gholizadeh← Munir El Haddadi

75'

T. Bifouma← M. Omri

90+1'

S. Hardani

Persepolis

Esteghlal

1

2

5

19

27

22

8

70

17

▼

20

11

1

93

6

8

4

21

▼

23

7

70

2

▼

Alishah

9

Alipour

Manager: Vahid Hashemian

67'▲F. Ahmadzadeh←▼O. Alishah

75'▲T. Bifouma←▼M. Omri

Persepolis FC substitutes

5Abarghouei11Ahmadzadeh14Enayatzadeh22RafieiBifouma37Barajeh44Homaeifard69Kazemian76Sahraei77Khodabandelou80Salmani

Manager: Ricardo Sa Pinto

70'▲E. Gholizadeh←▼Munir El Haddadi

Esteghlal FC substitutes

4Cheshmi7Azadi10Rezaeian12Djenepo15Zamani33Jalali55Gholami60Hosseinifar76Farabbasi80Eslami87Gholizadeh