Persepolis FC 1–0 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chadormalu SC

A. Mahmoudi 82'

2/3/2026

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 19Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Persepolis FC54%

×Draw29%

Chadormalu SC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.63

Persepolis FC

1.33

Chadormalu SC

0.63

Persepolis FC creates 111% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 26 away

1.44

creates per match

0.73

0.52

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.44

Chadormalu SC

0.73

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.52

Chadormalu SC

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

82%

Persepolis FC or Chadormalu SC

71%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

46%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

26%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

74%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

38%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

15%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

47%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

13%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

75%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.52 · 101 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Chadormalu SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chadormalu SC attack 0.73 + Persepolis FC defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

54%

level

29%

Chadormalu SC scores more

18%

Persepolis FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

53'

57'

67'

74'

M. Fallah← H. Habibinezhad

81'

R. Mirzaei← R. Dehghan

81'

M. Taha Farahani← R. Mahmoudabadi

82'

A. Mahmoudi↳ A. Alipour

85'

S. Portocarrero

86'

F. Moamelehgari← O. Urunov

87'

D. Torres← M. Khosravi

90+8'

M. Mohammadi

90+11'

D. Gera

90+3'

M. Khodabandelou← A. Mahmoudi

Persepolis

Chadormalu

12

33

34

2

5

13

▼

Mahmoudab

76

▼

Dehghan

78

▼

Khosravi

10

▼

11

88

1

11

5

6

4

88

7

34

⚽

▼

Mahmoudi

19

Sergeev

9

A

Alipour

70

▼

Urunov

Manager: Vahid Hashemian

86'▲F. Moamelehgari←▼O. Urunov

90+3'▲M. Khodabandelou←▼A. Mahmoudi

Persepolis FC substitutes

8Pouraliganji10Sarlak14Enayatzadeh18Abolfazl20Moamelehgari22Rafiei44Homaeifard45Sadeghi68Gandomi76Sahraei77Khodabandelou

74'▲M. Fallah←▼H. Habibinezhad

81'▲R. Mirzaei←▼R. Dehghan

81'▲M. Taha Farahani←▼R. Mahmoudabadi

87'▲D. Torres←▼M. Khosravi

Chadormalu SC substitutes

29Torres1Sedghi3Arta9Mirzaei20Otazu27Fallah66Farahani70Laksar80Negahdari97Eslamtalab