Persepolis FC 2–0 Aluminium Arak: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aluminium Arak

9/20/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 5Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Persepolis FC51%

×Draw30%

Aluminium Arak18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.61

Persepolis FC

1.23

Aluminium Arak

0.61

Persepolis FC creates 102% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 86 away

1.44

creates per match

0.71

0.51

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.44

Aluminium Arak

0.71

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.51

Aluminium Arak

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

82%

Persepolis FC or Aluminium Arak

70%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

49%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

23%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

71%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

35%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

13%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

46%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

13%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

74%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

51%

level

30%

Aluminium Arak scores more

18%

Persepolis FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff