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Persepolis FC vs Al Shorta — AFC Champions League 2018

Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
G. Gvelesiani 90+13' (pen)
O. Urunov 89'
Mohanad Ali 19'
12/2/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 6Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Persepolis FC66%
×Draw22%
Al Shorta12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persepolis FC
1.82
Al Shorta
0.63

Persepolis FC creates 189% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Persepolis FC
1.50
Al Shorta
0.46

allows per match

Persepolis FC
0.79
Al Shorta
2.15

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw
88%
Persepolis FC or Al Shorta
78%
Draw or Al Shorta
34%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+
39%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals
84%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
54%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
27%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
47%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
13%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
84%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.50 + Al Shorta defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.82

Al Shorta attack 0.46 + Persepolis FC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Persepolis FC scores more
66%
level
22%
Al Shorta scores more
12%

Persepolis FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
G. GvelesianiPersepolis FCPersepolis FC · D
7.9

Match Events

19'
Mohanad Ali
45+4'
Mohanad AliPenalty cancelled
46'
Y. Barajeh← M. Rigi
46'
O. Urunov← A. Alipour
60'
S. Rafiei← M. Mohammadi
60'
I. Alekasir← H. Kanani
70'
Mahmoud Al Mawas← Mohanad Ali
70'
Abdulrazzaq Qasim← Bassam Shakir
79'
Soroush RafieiGoal cancelled
79'
A. El Amloud← F. Ahmadzadeh
79'
Sajjad Jasim← Ahmed Farhan
82'
Hussein Al-Saedi
83'
Vahid Amiri
88'
Faisal Jasim← Ameer Sabah
89'
O. Urunov
90+11'
Issa AlkasirPenalty confirmed
90+9'
Mahmoud Al MawasMissed penalty
90+13'
G. GvelesianiPenalty

Possession

64%Persepolis

Shots

14Persepolis

Pass accuracy

53%Persepolis

Statistics

PersepolisAl
Overview
64%Possession36%
14Total Shots8
5Corners1
11Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots8
4On Target2
6Off Target4
4Blocked2
11Inside Box3
3Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
467Total Passes271
390Accurate Passes201
84%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

AFC Champions League: Persepolis FC 2–1 Al Shorta

Persepolis FC beat Al Shorta 2-1 in AFC Champions League on December 2, 2024.

Goals: Mohanad Ali (19'), O. Urunov (89'), G. Gvelesiani (90+13' pen).

Persepolis FC controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.