Persepolis FC 4–2 Al-Rayyan SC: Result & Stats

Persepolis FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Al-Rayyan SC

I. Alekasir 73'

M. Kanani 68'

E. Pahlevan 33'

S. Moghanlou 27'

Y. Boli 72', 48'

4/29/2021

AFC Champions League · Group E - 6Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Persepolis FC51%

×Draw25%

Al-Rayyan SC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Rayyan SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.02

Persepolis FC

1.61

Al-Rayyan SC

1.02

Persepolis FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

1.45

creates per match

1.28

0.76

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.45

Al-Rayyan SC

1.28

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.76

Al-Rayyan SC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Al-Rayyan SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

76%

Persepolis FC or Al-Rayyan SC

75%

Draw or Al-Rayyan SC

49%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

27%

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

80%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

48%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

22%

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

64%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

27%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

68%

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

Al-Rayyan SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.45 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.28 + Persepolis FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

51%

level

25%

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

24%

Persepolis FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Y. Boli

Al-Rayyan SC · F

8.2

Match Events

12'

Shahriar Moghanlou

27'

S. Moghanlou↳ O. Alishah

33'

E. Pahlevan↳ O. Alishah

40'

Yousif Umar Din← Dame Traoré

41'

Mowafak Awad

46'

Ahmed El Sayed← Abdulrahman Al Korbi

46'

Mohammed Alaa Eldin← Mouafak Awad

48'

52'

53'

68'

72'

Y. Boli↳ F. Kom

73'

I. Alekasir

74'

A. Shojaei← V. Amiri

78'

M. Mehdikhani← S. Moghanlou

78'

M. Shiri← O. Alishah

79'

Franck Kom

82'

Tameem Al Abdullah← Ali Farydoon

89'

M. Abdi← M. Torabi

90+2'

Mohammad Jumaa← S. Khalilzadeh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PersepolisAl-Rayyan

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots9

10Corners2

11Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target5

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

436Total Passes283

375Accurate Passes227

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1