Persebaya Surabaya 1–1 Semen Padang: Result & Stats

Persebaya Surabaya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Semen Padang

Bruno 64'

C. Stewart 35'

5/11/2025

Liga 1 · Round 32Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Persebaya Surabaya73%

×Draw18%

Semen Padang8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persebaya SurabayaExpected goals in this matchSemen Padang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.55

Persebaya Surabaya

2.10

Semen Padang

0.55

Persebaya Surabaya creates 282% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.71

creates per match

0.25

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Persebaya Surabaya

2.71

Semen Padang

0.25

allows per match

Persebaya Surabaya

0.86

Semen Padang

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persebaya Surabaya+0.00on par

Semen Padang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persebaya Surabaya ↓

Semen Padang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Persebaya Surabaya or draw

92%

Persebaya Surabaya or Semen Padang

82%

Draw or Semen Padang

27%

Winning margin

Persebaya Surabaya wins by 2+

48%

Semen Padang wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Persebaya Surabaya 1+ goals

88%

Persebaya Surabaya 2+ goals

62%

Persebaya Surabaya 3+ goals

35%

Semen Padang 1+ goals

42%

Semen Padang 2+ goals

11%

Semen Padang 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Persebaya Surabaya (draw refunded)

90%

Semen Padang (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persebaya Surabaya at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Semen Padang away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persebaya Surabaya attack 2.71 + Semen Padang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Semen Padang attack 0.25 + Persebaya Surabaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Persebaya Surabaya scores more

73%

level

18%

Semen Padang scores more

8%

Persebaya Surabaya at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Persebaya Surabaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

R. Setiawan

35'

C. Stewart↳ Bruno Gomes

41'

D. A. Djin

46'

B. Reksa← A. Djin

56'

Bruno

57'

C. Stewart

58'

Filipe Chaby← I. Mila

64'

Bruno

67'

T. Martic

68'

Mohammed Rashid← M. Risaldi

76'

K. Botan← T. Firmansyah

76'

M. Ridwan← F. Juliansyah

80'

Z. Afandi

84'

D. TumbasGoal Disallowed - offside

90+5'

D. Nofiansyah← R. Setiawan

Persebaya

Semen

1

Arthur

44

Martić

13

▼

Djin

25

Afandi

30

Wakaso

31

▼

Setiawan

8

Ariansyah

15

▼

Juliansya

9

⚽

Stewart

17

A

Gomes

29

▼

21

4

3

23

2

7

68

▼

Firmansya

17

Silva

10

⚽

Bruno

79

▼

Risaldi

91

Tumbas

Manager: P. Munster

68'▲Mohammed Rashid←▼M. Risaldi

76'▲K. Botan←▼T. Firmansyah

Persebaya Surabaya substitutes

74Rashid77Botan32Lauhin27Fernando18May52Ramadhani9Dwi28Suaib25Tata96Hidayat8Oktaviansyah64Arya

Manager: Eduardo Almeida

46'▲B. Reksa←▼A. Djin

58'▲Filipe Chaby←▼I. Mila

76'▲M. Ridwan←▼F. Juliansyah

90+5'▲D. Nofiansyah←▼R. Setiawan

Semen Padang substitutes

55Reksa7Chaby19Ridwan66Nofiansyah20Majefat18Pagamo71Amiruddin5Min-Gyu6Iqbal