Persebaya Surabaya 4–1 Persik Kediri

Persebaya Surabaya

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Persik Kediri

Flávio Silva 81'

K. Botan 9'

F. Rivera 7'

Mohammed Rashid 3'

R. Fergonzi 22'

12/11/2024

Liga 1 · Round 14Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Persebaya Surabaya85%

×Draw10%

Persik Kediri5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persebaya SurabayaExpected goals in this matchPersik Kediri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

0.75

Persebaya Surabaya

3.33

Persik Kediri

0.75

Persebaya Surabaya creates 344% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

0.67

0.83

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Persebaya Surabaya

3.00

Persik Kediri

0.67

allows per match

Persebaya Surabaya

0.83

Persik Kediri

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persebaya Surabaya+0.00on par

Persik Kediri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persebaya Surabaya ↓

Persik Kediri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Persebaya Surabaya or draw

95%

Persebaya Surabaya or Persik Kediri

90%

Draw or Persik Kediri

15%

Winning margin

Persebaya Surabaya wins by 2+

68%

Persik Kediri wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Persebaya Surabaya 1+ goals

96%

Persebaya Surabaya 2+ goals

84%

Persebaya Surabaya 3+ goals

63%

Persik Kediri 1+ goals

53%

Persik Kediri 2+ goals

17%

Persik Kediri 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Persebaya Surabaya (draw refunded)

94%

Persik Kediri (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persebaya Surabaya at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Persik Kediri away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persebaya Surabaya attack 3.00 + Persik Kediri defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

Persik Kediri attack 0.67 + Persebaya Surabaya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Persebaya Surabaya scores more

85%

level

10%

Persik Kediri scores more

5%

Persebaya Surabaya at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Persebaya Surabaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Mohammed Rashid↳ F. Rivera

7'

F. Rivera↳ M. Risaldi

9'

K. Botan

22'

R. Fergonzi↳ H. Hehanussa

38'

R. Chand

46'

R. Abiyoso← V. Yagalo

46'

Brendon Lucas← M. Khanafi

46'

N. Fasya← R. Chand

46'

Y. Meilana← D. Safari

49'

Brendon

65'

Gilson Costa← T. Firmansyah

65'

R. Dwi← K. Botan

72'

O. Fernando← F. Rivera

72'

81'

85'

85'

86'

Persebaya

Persik

1

Navacchio

78

▼

Yagalo

3

Kiko

16

A

Hehanussa

2

▼

Safari

32

▼

Chand

5

Fané

17

▼

Osman

9

⚽

Fergonzi

8

Walian

97

▼

Khanafi

21

Ari

15

Damjanovi

3

▼

Idrus

23

Raditya

2

Catur

7

⚽A

▼

Rivera

74

⚽

Rashid

68

▼

Firmansya

17

⚽

Silva

79

A

▼

Risaldi

77

⚽

▼

Botan

Manager: P. Munster

65'▲Gilson Costa←▼T. Firmansyah

65'▲R. Dwi←▼K. Botan

72'▲O. Fernando←▼F. Rivera

85'▲R. Lauhin←▼A. Idrus

86'▲A. Suaib←▼M. Risaldi

Persebaya Surabaya substitutes

6Costa9Dwi27Fernando32Lauhin28Suaib8Oktaviansyah18May52Ramadhani64Arya

Manager: Marcelo Rospide

46'▲R. Abiyoso←▼V. Yagalo

46'▲Brendon Lucas←▼M. Khanafi

46'▲N. Fasya←▼R. Chand

46'▲Y. Meilana←▼D. Safari

72'▲B. Otto←▼Majed Osman

Persik Kediri substitutes

21Abiyoso4Lucas57Fasya7Meilana6Otto28Samir31Wahyu77Farandi13Aditama33Malik24Agung11Eko