Persebaya Surabaya vs Persib Bandung — Liga 1 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Persebaya Surabaya68%
Persib Bandung15%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Persebaya Surabaya creates 125% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over73
- Under27
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Persebaya Surabaya ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Persebaya Surabaya at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches
Persib Bandung away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Persebaya Surabaya attack 3.00 + Persib Bandung defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.63
Persib Bandung attack 1.50 + Persebaya Surabaya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Persebaya Surabaya at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Persebaya Surabaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Persebaya Surabaya
Bhayangkara FCPersib Bandung
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Arema FC
Bali United
Malut United
Persija
Persis Solo
Persijap
Dewa United
Persepam Madura Utd
PSIM Yogyakarta
Persik Kediri
PSBS Biak Numfor
Persita
PSM Makassar
Semen PadangIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Persebaya Surabaya host Persib Bandung on Saturday, 1 March 2025 at 13:30. The match is part of the Liga 1 2025/2026 season.
Persebaya Surabaya 4 – 1 Persib Bandung
Persebaya Surabaya beat Persib Bandung 4-1 in Liga 1 on March 1, 2025.
Goals: M. Klok (61' o.g.), R. Dwi (79'), Bruno (82'), R. Kurnia (89'), F. Rivera (90+2').
The match was played at Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo in Surabaya.