Pêro Pinheiro 1–4 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

Pêro Pinheiro

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Vitoria Setubal

11/9/2022

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro34%

×Draw23%

Vitoria Setubal43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pêro PinheiroExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.78

Pêro Pinheiro

1.57

Vitoria Setubal

1.78

Vitoria Setubal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.14

creates per match

2.57

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro

2.14

Vitoria Setubal

2.57

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro

1.00

Vitoria Setubal

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw

57%

Pêro Pinheiro or Vitoria Setubal

77%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

66%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

16%

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

79%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

46%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

21%

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

83%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

53%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

44%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.57 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

34%

level

23%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

43%

Vitoria Setubal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff