Pêro Pinheiro 0–0 Vitória de Sernache

Pêro Pinheiro

0 – 0

Vitória de Sernache

9/29/2019

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro33%

×Draw24%

Vitória de Sernache44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pêro PinheiroExpected goals in this matchVitória de Sernache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.67

Pêro Pinheiro

1.41

Vitória de Sernache

1.67

Vitória de Sernache creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.14

creates per match

2.33

1.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro

2.14

Vitória de Sernache

2.33

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro

1.00

Vitória de Sernache

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Vitória de Sernache →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw

56%

Pêro Pinheiro or Vitória de Sernache

76%

Draw or Vitória de Sernache

67%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

15%

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

76%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

41%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

17%

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals

81%

Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals

50%

Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

43%

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vitória de Sernache attack 2.33 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

33%

level

24%

Vitória de Sernache scores more

44%

Vitória de Sernache at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff