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Pêro Pinheiro vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
10/29/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 9Estadio do Sport União Sintrense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro32%
×Draw25%
Sporting CP B43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
1.27
Sporting CP B
1.53

Sporting CP B creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.29
Sporting CP B
1.14

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.93
Sporting CP B
1.26

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
57%
Pêro Pinheiro or Sporting CP B
75%
Draw or Sporting CP B
68%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
13%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
72%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
36%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
14%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
78%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
45%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
42%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.29 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
32%
level
25%
Sporting CP B scores more
43%

Sporting CP B at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pêro Pinheiro vs Sporting CP B

Pêro Pinheiro and Sporting CP B drew 3-3 in Liga 3 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio do Sport União Sintrense in Sintra.